¿Por qué el euro sigue a 1,35?

 
En medio de la debacle de la eurozona, me intrigaba el hecho de que el euro no bajase de 1,35 frente al dólar, o que en general se mantuviese bastante bien frente a otras monedas.

Hoy un par de frases en un artículo del boletín ViewsWire de la Economist Intelligence Unit, me han dado una pista, iluminando un dato que se está olvidando en todos los análisis que he visto últimamente:

"The latest crisis has saddled Europe with the image of an impoverished debtor in desperate need of creditors. If that were wholly true, the risks facing financial institutions in other regions would stem mainly from the losses they might suffer on the money they have lent to their European counterparts (...). But that doesn't tell the full story. The euro zone might be struggling to deal with a handful of crisis-plagued countries, but the bloc as a whole is actually an important supplier of credit to other regions, especially emerging markets."

"According to data from the BIS, the stock of lending by western European banks to banks in emerging markets totalled US$3.6trn at the end of June 2011, equivalent to 71% of emerging market banks' total borrowing (that figure includes 19% accounted for by the UK). European lending dwarfed the US$765bn (15.1% of the total) loaned to emerging markets by US banks and the US$311bn (6.2%) loaned by Japanese banks."

Así que los problemas de los bancos de la eurozona se pueden traducir en una restricción de crédito a nivel mundial, con un euro relativamente fuerte.